…and anything can happen. Just ask the Bruins and Celtics. Sure, the Red Sox don’t look very intimidating right now, but there are still five months of baseball before the playoffs start in October. That’s an eternity in professional sports. It’s not just the injuries and wear and tear that will change the complexion of other teams, but also the development and emergence of unknown young new talent, perhaps on the Red Sox, that may yet turn them into World Series favorites.

Although the Red Sox are stacked with a lot of high priced talent, and are favored to win this year, it is still a precarious business. Volcanic ash clouds? No. All it would take at this point in the season, is a ten-day losing streak for panic to break out in the streets. Less than a fortnight. Imagine the mighty Red Sox with a 4-17 record on April 27th. Fury! Republican Tea Partiers have nothin’ on an angry Boston sports mob-the original tea partiers. Monday-morning quarterbacks? How about Sunday and every-other-morning of the week quarterbacking. Hostility, tension and criticism dog the team in the best of times. Players like Big Papi don’t so much earn their millions on the field anymore, as much as they earn it off the field where they endure an endless, withering assault on their, ahem, brand. Yes, there are plenty of optimists out there, but will people pay $200 & $300 a seat to watch a losing team?

…aka “sports talk” in Boston; a town filled with too many Irish wiseguys disguised as sportswriters. Sports journalism, and particularly the second tier tawk tawk tawk on tv and radio is an exercise in idiocy. Fulminating Michael Felger personifies the genre with solid negativity. He’s got the voice and the looks to do it on radio, tv and even print. According to Felger the Red Sox Opening Night ceremony was an exercise in overkill, no doubt a skill that he would recognize immediately.

The 2010 Red Sox will be a very efficient team to watch and root for. No more endless games for the impatient Remdawg. Great pitching, good defense and no hitting should result in quick two-hour games, lights out by 10pm. Boston is the city that sleeps! Befitting a town more early to bed and early to exercise. Theo Epstein has a roster that closely matches his temperment, and that of his non-tempermental owner John Henry. It’s the year to test their sabermetric defensive equations. The Red Sox are pre-season favorites, the sellouts continue, 94 wins is the goal. The commoditization of Fenway continues. Play ball!

The Red Sox did not land a big bat this offseason, but they may get the sabermetric equivalent in a roundabout way, because on paper, Boston has a pitching staff like they have never had a pitching staff. John Lackey, the free agent ace from the west, joins established east coast ace Josh Beckett (hungry in a contract year), lefty ace John Lester, ace-in-waiting Clay Bucholtz, and ace from the far east Daisuke Matsusaka. Great pitching, good defense and Papelbon/Bard in the bullpen will take the pressure off the hitters and the offense. Pedroia & Co. don’t have to overswing trying to hit a home run every time. So, look for the Red Sox to hit better than expected in 2010. Fenway will be a test of an interesting sabermetric equation. Great pitching + great defense = better hitting? Five aces are in the hole. Bet on it.

Boston sport’s famed “Decade of Dominance” started with the Patriots, went to the mountain with the Red Sox, and the Celtics put a green cherry on top of the whole fan-glorious sundae. And we ate it up. Memorabilia is everywhere and on everyone. We are confident if not belligerent winners. There is more pre and post game than actual game, and, a la elevator musak, the airwaves and 3G waves are now filled with sportsak from homer sports journalists. But, in its own corner of many an office or home, is the old framed photo of the 2004 team in front of the Green Monster, the team that beat the Yankees, nevermind the World Series. A vintage sports story 86 years in the making, evocative of so much to so many, warm feeling that will last a lifetime. They were dreams come true.

Like Fantastic Mr. Fox, Tiger Woods will one day emerge from all that he is currently buried under. He will be a bigger celebrity, a bigger personality-he is arguably the greatest athlete in the history of professional sports-but golf is the champagne of sport, and vintage Tiger will someday break all of the records. When he does, the stock market will come roaring back, all will be forgiven, and his fantastic whistle, wink & smile will be marketed to reflect a culture that knows better, but can’t help itself!

When good football teams play well in the first half, but poorly in the second half, it means that they are getting outcoached. Specifically, the Patriots opposing teams at halftime make adjustments on offensive and defense, and their play-calling in the third & fourth quarter is better than New England’s. Play-calling is a young man’s skill; it’s an artform, requiring creativity, new ideas, imagination and enthusiasm. Belichick has coached hundreds and hundreds of games, and is either burnt out or has passed his prime. The old Championship Patriots would surprise defenses in the red zone, with first down passes to Mike Vrabel or a quarterback bootleg. The same players now look tired and predictable.

The New England Patriots and Boston Red Sox have roughly the same payroll, about $125M, but the Patriots have twice as many players to pay salaries to! The Patriots have about 60 players and the Red Sox just under 30. As a result, the Patriots can afford to pay only five of their best players $5M or more per year, while the Red Sox can play twelve of their better players $5M or more. In football, you can really only retain (pay) about 10% of your best players, but in baseball you can hold unto at least 30% of your core team. That’s why success is harder to maintain in football than it is in baseball. Great teams like the Patriots, that win three Super Bowls, can’t keep a dynasty-and specifically a defense-together. Good players like Assante Samuel get greedy, and leave the team to get paid $9M per year. Then Richard Seymour gets traded for someone younger and cheaper. All of a sudden there’s no rush, no pass defense, Peyton Manning is on the other sideline, the noise is deafening, and it’s 4th & 2!

Okay, okay, okay….let’s look on the bright side of the Patriots loss against the Colts. New England’s defense will be much better, next time. No really. The fans, the media, and this week’s cartoon took 4th & 2 as a defining loss, but actually Belichick is very much in transition on defense. (that sneaky, sly fox)These weren’t prideful veteran’s making a last stand. On the field in Indy were mostly young, hungry and fearless second and third year players, even a few rookies. Forty-something fans and media types were crushed by the 35-34 loss, but Belichick’s twenty-something stud defense is already over it, and chomping at the bit. They will devour the Jets next. A win in New Orleans, lead by the defense-in honor of their beleaguered coach-would right the Good Ship Belichick and set up a dream finish to the season for football fans.